Iran is not merely preparing its population for a potential war; it is also taking preemptive foreign policy steps during this complex phase, says an international relations expert.
Iran is not merely preparing its population for a potential war; it is also taking preemptive foreign policy measures during this complex phase, writes international relations expert Suren Sargsyan.
"Regarding Iran’s 'Prepare for War' Announcement
It has been reported that Iranian media outlets have called upon the Iranian population to prepare for war.
In my view, this statement by Iran should be interpreted primarily as a calculated tactical maneuver, rather than as an indication that military operations are about to commence. First and foremost, it must be noted that Iran has issued this statement at a time when there is significant movement of American military hardware and aircraft in the region. Specifically, American aircraft have been frequently observed in the area, patrolling the vicinity of the Strait of Hormuz." However, I believe this statement by Iran is primarily intended for external audiences.
1. Naturally, the statement is directed first and foremost at the Iranian population, urging people to remain vigilant, to exercise the utmost caution in the event of potential military operations, and to be psychologically prepared for such eventualities.
2. Furthermore, I believe that through this statement, Iran also aims to incite panic in the international fuel market—a move that could cause global fuel prices to rise, or at the very least, prevent them from falling.
3. It is well known that midterm elections are set to take place in the United States on November 3rd, and Trump’s party is facing significant challenges. One of the reasons for this is the historically high level of fuel prices, which is largely driven by the prospect of a war with Iran. The Trump administration is attempting to introduce a degree of regulation into the fuel market and drive prices down as much as possible, as a decline in prices ahead of the elections could positively influence voter sentiment. So far, however, these efforts have proven fruitless.
Meanwhile, while an agreement between Trump and Putin regarding fuel supplies could have served as a stabilizing factor—potentially leading to a drop in prices within the U.S. fuel market—Iran is naturally seeking to prevent such a scenario through this move. This is especially significant given that Trump had previously stated he does not plan any attacks before November 3.
4. Through this action, Iran also signals that a new attack could come at a higher cost for the U.S. and its allies—not only in financial terms but also politically, both within the United States and across the region. "Therefore, Iran is not merely preparing its population for a potential war, but is also taking preemptive foreign policy steps during this complex phase," wrote Suren Sargsyan.
