Azerbaijan-Syria: Past, Present, and Threats for Armenia. Garnik Davtyan

Relations between Azerbaijan and Syria have never been entirely stable or predictable. They have been influenced by both regional and global events. These include wars in the Middle East, Turkish-Iranian rivalry, Russian political interests, and of course, Azerbaijan’s strategic partnership with Turkey and Israel. Now, with the Assad regime overthrown in Syria, Azerbaijan is actively trying to establish its position there. In these processes, it is especially important to consider the Turkish factor, as well as how all this may affect Armenia.

Azerbaijan and Syria officially established diplomatic relations in 1992. Initially, relations were maintained mainly at a formal level. However, since the second half of the 2000s, certain changes have been observed. In 2009, Bashar Assad visited Baku, where a number of agreements were signed, including in the energy and transport sectors. This visit was seen as an attempt by Azerbaijan to increase its role in the Middle East.

However, the Syrian civil war that began in 2011 changed the situation dramatically. Azerbaijan, which sought to remain neutral, in fact began to counterbalance the Assad regime, strengthening its military, political and information activity against Syrian opposition groups. During this time, Turkey, a strategic ally of Azerbaijan, acted as an active party against Assad. Azerbaijan, despite its official neutrality, has repeatedly supported Turkish initiatives.

Speaking about current relations, we consider it important to note that in 2024-2025. As a result of new political developments, and especially the overthrow of the Bashar Assad regime, changes in Syria's foreign policy course have brought about changes that would not be entirely correct to call positive. Taking advantage of this situation, Azerbaijan began to deepen cooperation, offering economic and humanitarian assistance. In particular, the State Oil Company of Azerbaijan announced plans to supply gas to Syria, and an Azerbaijani cultural center was opened in Damascus. In this context, it is important to note that Azerbaijan has sent humanitarian aid to Syria several times, including food, medical supplies, and economic consulting. This process is seen within the framework of Turkey-Azerbaijan cooperation as indirect support to strengthen Turkish influence in the Syrian regions controlled by Turkey.

Turkey has always acted as a country pursuing an active and aggressive foreign policy, especially towards Syria. Since 2011, Turkey has actively supported groups opposing Assad, including armed Islamist and Turkmen groups. Ankara has established its military presence in northern Syria, creating controlled zones.

Azerbaijan, being a strategic partner of Turkey, has been included in this policy as a supporting party. This has been expressed not only in political solidarity, but also in general information campaigns to isolate the Assad government on international platforms. In this context, Azerbaijan is positioned as an instrument of Turkish influence in the Middle East.

Israel's role in shaping Azerbaijan's foreign policy cannot be ignored. Israel is one of Azerbaijan's strategic allies, particularly in the areas of security, intelligence, and arms supply. According to a number of Western analysts, Azerbaijan has been a "silent ally" of Israel in some of its actions against Iran.

In this context, Azerbaijan can use Syria as a means of maneuvering against Iranian influence. Although Syria officially remains an ally of Iran, there is a certain detachment among the new authorities. If this process deepens, Baku will try to strengthen its position in Damascus as a counterweight to Tehran.

Risks and challenges for Armenia

Armenia finds itself in a rather difficult position in this regional turmoil.

· First, Azerbaijan is strengthening its positions in the Middle East through Turkey and Israel. This means that Armenia may come under increased pressure, especially in the Syunik and Ararat regions.

· The growth of Azerbaijani and Turkish influence in Syria means a decrease in the influence of the Armenian diaspora in that region. This may lead to further isolation of the Syrian-Armenian community.

· Baku can use the improvement of relations with Syria as leverage in international forums to isolate Armenia.

· Turkey, using its controlled territories in Syria, can form new transport corridors to Azerbaijan that will bypass Armenia.

From the above, we can conclude that the activation of relations between Azerbaijan and Syria is aimed not only at serving economic interests, but also at strengthening strategic positions in the Middle East. Turkey's role in this process is key. And Armenia, as a neighboring country, may find itself under new military-political threats if it does not form a flexible and multilateral diplomatic strategy. Armenia needs not only to follow these developments, but also to actively engage in regional dialogues, including with Syria, using all diplomatic, diaspora and cultural levers, which, however, is highly questionable in the case of today's Armenian government.

International scholar, expert on Azerbaijani affairs: Garnik Davtyan