Aliyev's message to Pashinyan: Baku's blackmail under the guise of peace

Political scientist Suren Surenyants wrote:

"The Azerbaijani Caliber.Az portal, citing government sources, reported that President Ilham Aliyev does not plan to participate in the European Political Association summit to be held in Yerevan in May 2026."

As the source put it, "a high-level visit without a signed agreement and without the implementation of practical mechanisms may create a false impression that the process is complete."

Caliber.Az has been acting as a mouthpiece for Baku's government propaganda for years, and such publications usually reflect the official sentiments of the Aliyev administration itself.

The message here is clear: Baku does not consider peace to be achieved and is hinting that Pashinyan still has "homework" to do towards signing a peace treaty.

While Pashinyan presents the illusion of "established peace" both internally and externally, Baku emphasizes that "talking about peace without a legal basis in itself creates a false impression of the completion of the process."

This is not diplomatic caution, but political blackmail, the goal of which is to force Yerevan to accept the conditions dictated by Baku.

At the same time, Baku is forming the perception that the responsibility for the possible failure of the peace process lies solely with Yerevan.

In essence, Aliyev is now creating a pre-election pause and comfort for Pashinyan so that the latter can hold the elections without external escalation.

However, this "calm" will be temporary: Baku will definitely try to demand the price after the elections, already at the stage of signing the contract or fulfilling obligations.

Thus, Aliyev maintains the levers of pressure, temporarily creating the illusion of peace, which after the elections may turn into a chain of new impositions and demands.