Shadows over the Caspian Sea: Did Azerbaijan help Israel in the post-Iran war?

The last 12 days of tension between Israel and Iran were one of the most tense episodes in the region's history in recent decades.

At the center of these events has unexpectedly appeared Azerbaijan, a country that borders Iran and has close strategic ties with Israel. Against the background of the news that Azerbaijani airspace could be used for Israeli strikes, a number of important questions arise: Could Azerbaijan have assisted Israel in this operation? And if so, what were the reasons, risks, and consequences of such assistance?

Context of this triangle: Baku - Tel Aviv - Tehran Since the early 2000s, Azerbaijan has been building increasingly close relations with Israel. Tel Aviv is not only Baku's main supplier of weapons (including drones, air defense, intelligence technologies), but also the main buyer of Azerbaijani oil (up to 40% of Israeli oil supplies come from Azerbaijan). This mutually beneficial axis counteracts the growing threat from Iran, which in turn openly supports Armenia, including in the context of the conflict over the Republic of Artsakh. In this light, Azerbaijan views Israel as a strategic counterbalance to possible pressure from Iran. For Israel, in turn, Baku is not only a partner, but also the key to a perimeter approach towards Iran.

During the latest escalation, several Iranian sources reported drones and fighter jets flying over the country’s northern provinces, near the border with Azerbaijan and the Caspian Sea. Remains of external fuel tanks, typical of long-range airstrikes, have also been found. While there is no direct evidence of Azerbaijani involvement in securing the air corridor, several indirect signs raise suspicions.

Let's try to present all of this on 3 main platforms: geographical, technical, and political.

Geographically, the shortest and safest route for Israeli strikes on northern and central Iran is through Azerbaijan or the Caspian Sea.

Technically, Israel has the capability to conduct long-range airstrikes, but using a partner's territory simplifies logistics and increases accuracy.

Politically, Azerbaijan already has infrastructure (including airports that can be used for refueling or monitoring) and an experience of secret cooperation with Israel, which, according to various sources, began in 2012 and deepened in 2020 with Azerbaijan's aggression against Artsakh.

Azerbaijan has officially denied all the accusations, calling them a “provocation” and insisting that its territory will not be used against its neighbors. However, diplomatic language does not exclude real covert cooperation, especially if it is carried out without the direct participation of the army, but, for example, by special services or isolated aviation structures. For Iran, in turn, such a scenario can be more than worrying. If Azerbaijan’s participation is indeed confirmed, it creates a new frontier of threats, blurs the idea of regional loyalty and encourages Iran to increase military pressure on its northern borders.

Assuming that Azerbaijan has provided some assistance (logistical, intelligence, or infrastructural), we are dealing with a major geopolitical shift. Here we can observe the polarization of the region in particular.

Polarization of the region: Iran will view Baku as a direct ally of the enemy, which will lead to an escalation of information and, possibly, hybrid warfare in the north. And deepening cooperation with Israel as such will strengthen the Baku-Tel Aviv alliance, including closer intelligence sharing, high-tech weapons, and, possibly, the creation of joint bases.

At this stage, there is no irrefutable evidence that Azerbaijan provided direct assistance to Israel in the 12-day war with Iran. However, the strategic logic, indirect signs and political background make such a scenario more than likely. Even if Baku’s participation was limited to passive non-interference, it is already a signal to Tehran that its southern border is becoming increasingly vulnerable. Azerbaijan, seeking to strengthen its position in the region and strengthen relations with the West and Israel, is balancing on the verge of a new phase of geopolitical conflict. And the more active a role it plays in such alliances, the greater the risk of becoming the arena for a new phase of regional confrontation.

International scholar, expert on Azerbaijani affairs: Garnik Davtyan