Peace or a new threat?

Peace in Armenian-Azerbaijani relations is impossible neither technically, nor politically, nor socially. There are many reasons: internal Azerbaijani hostility towards Armenians, a complete lack of trust, serious human rights issues, etc. Talks about peace in Armenian-Azerbaijani relations have become the most discussed topic in recent years. Negotiations continue at the official level, the concept of a “peace treaty” is being circulated, and international actors are trying to keep the parties at the table. However, a deeper observation shows that the talk about peace is more of an illusion than a reality. Azerbaijani policy, the thinking formed within society, and the events of recent years indicate that Armenian-Azerbaijani peace is not only difficult to achieve, but can also be dangerous for the statehood and security of Armenia itself.

First, it is important to note that Azerbaijan has consistently built its state narrative on the basis of Armenophobia. Hate speech spreads from school textbooks to official speeches. Azerbaijani children are taught from childhood that Armenians are “enemies,” and this perception permeates all layers of society. Even in conditions when the majority of Azerbaijanis in surveys express their support for “peace,” this is more due to the expectation of economic stability and development than to a real will to accept Armenians as equal neighbors. In other words, the peace they imagine does not imply reconciliation, but a model of forced adaptation of Armenians.

The events in Artsakh are the most obvious proof of this. After the military operations in September 2023, the entire Armenian population was displaced, more than 100 thousand people were forced to leave their homes. This was not a prerequisite for peace, but on the contrary, it showed that Azerbaijan is not going to ensure the security of Armenians in its own territory in any way. The destruction of the parliament building in Stepanakert or the destruction of Armenian cultural relics indicate that Baku is striving not for coexistence, but for the complete extermination of Armenians from the territories it controls.

Against this backdrop, the idea of a “peace treaty” becomes a serious threat to Armenia. First, it could legitimize the reality that was created through force: Artsakh is depopulated, thousands of families are deprived of their rights. Second, such a treaty would give Azerbaijan the opportunity to put forward new demands. Aliyev’s and Turkey’s statements on the “Zangezur Corridor” show that the peace they envision involves the violation of Armenia’s territorial integrity.

Moreover, the human rights situation inside Azerbaijan, the lack of freedom of speech, and the repression of oppositionists show that any peace agreement there will be perceived as a document of victory. In other words, the peace treaty will not become a document of reconciliation between equal parties, but rather the result of coercion, where Armenia is presented as a defeated and weakened party.

In this situation, the danger is that Armenia may lose its strategic opportunities, without any guarantees, and become a new threat. If there is no trust between societies, if the propaganda of hatred continues at the state level, if the memory of violence and displacement is fresh, then signing a “peace treaty” is not only meaningless, but also dangerous.

The right approach for Armenia should not be to give in to Azerbaijan’s demands in the name of illusory peace, but to strengthen its own security system, build equal and long-term interests with international partners, as well as increase the readiness within society to withstand possible new pressures. Peace cannot be the result of unilateral concessions. It must be based on mutual respect and security guarantees, which Azerbaijan is not only not providing at the moment, but is also openly violating.

In conclusion, it can be said that the Armenian-Azerbaijani peace talks serve more to show the outside world the illusion of “constructivity”, while in reality they endanger the security and future of Armenia. Peace is not possible as long as Azerbaijan continues to pursue Armenophobia as a state policy, and as long as the language of force remains its main tool. The main priority for Armenia should be the protection of its sovereignty and territorial integrity, not signing a pseudo-peace treaty.

International scholar, expert on Azerbaijan: Garnik Davtyan