The calculation with the collapse of the Republic of Armenia is given in PART II.

Political and military developments in the Nakhichevan Autonomous Republic

The joint declaration signed in Washington on August 8-9, 2025, which includes the idea of a transport corridor through Armenia to Nakhichevan, is a strategic change for the region.

If this project is implemented, Azerbaijan will establish a fast and safe land connection with Nakhichevan, bypassing Iran. This will bring:

• Logistical advantage : the ability to quickly move military equipment, personnel, and supplies.

• With constant military preparedness , even without a declaration of war, Nakhichevan can always maintain a high level of preparedness.

• Political patronage : US mediation could reduce international pressure on Azerbaijan's actions if they are not presented as "transport and economic."

However, this project has caused discontent in Iran and Russia. Iran perceives it as a step against its border security and regional influence.

Political dynamics and centralization of power

Vasif Talibov, the authoritarian ruler of Nakhichevan and a proxy of the ruling Azerbaijani clan, was able to control both local government and economic flows. However, on December 21, 2022, Talibov resigned, paving the way for more direct control from Baku.

During 2023–2024, a personnel purge and new appointments replaced the local elite, removing Talibov's entourage and appointing officials sent from Baku. Thus, Nakhichevan's political autonomy was effectively reduced, turning into a model of direct rule by the central government of Azerbaijan.

This change created the basis for rapid political and military decisions that previously might have clashed with local interests or slow administration.

Acceleration of militarization

The militarization of Nakhichevan coincided with the deepening of strategic integration between Turkey and Azerbaijan. In 2019–2021, the introduction of UAV (Bayraktar TB2, later Akinci) technologies and long-range artillery systems began. In 2020, the experience gained in the Karabakh war became the basis for expanding the tactical and operational use of drones.

After 2022, the intensity of joint military exercises in the territory of Nakhichevan increased, encompassing not only artillery and mechanized forces, but also air defense and border strike means.

It is also important that the drone maintenance and training infrastructure was strengthened in 2024. This means that Nakhichevan not only receives ready-made military equipment, but can also ensure its long-term operation and personnel training, making it a full-fledged military hub in a strategic context.

Potential to become a strike platform against Iran

Nakhichevan borders northwestern Iran, which gives it a unique position for military operations. With current armaments:

• UAVs (TB2, Akinci) and MLRS systems can carry out strikes near the border or up to ~150-200 km deep.

• The deployment of LORA and similar SRBM systems, if implemented, would increase the strike radius to ~300–400 km, making it possible to reach Iran's strategic targets in and around Tabriz.

• Iran's deep-seated centers (e.g. Tehran) are not reachable from the current arsenal unless longer-range missiles are deployed.

However, such deployments would lead to an immediate military escalation, involving not only Iran but also Russia, and would force Turkey to choose between its allied commitments and regional balance.

Armenia's security calculation

For Armenia, the militarization of Nakhichevan and the possibility of the creation of the "Trump Path to International Peace and Prosperity" (TRIPP) pose several dangers:

• Pressure from Syunik : the corridor issue is directly related to the security and control of Syunik.

• A two-front military front : Azerbaijan may have the opportunity to exert pressure in two directions: from the east and the southwest.

A permanent logistical link , the launch of TRIPP will make any military maneuver quick and unpredictable.

Between 2018 and 2025, Nakhichevan transitioned from authoritarian stability to a centrally controlled, rapidly militarizing region. Talibov’s departure marked a turning point, giving Baku full political and administrative control.

The acceleration of militarization, including the use of UAVs and missile systems, has already changed the regional balance of power. The US-Azerbaijan-Armenia declaration adds logistical and political tools to Azerbaijan, and the border with Iran makes Nakhichevan a potential strike platform.

For Armenia, this means not only the risk of constant pressure on Syunik, but also a more intense and destructive war.

International scholar, expert on Azerbaijani affairs: Garnik Davtyan