The goals and threats of the anti-Armenian structure of "Western Azerbaijan" for Armenia

The structure called “Western Azerbaijan Community” (WAC) has become a key instrument of Azerbaijani state policy in recent years. Although it is presented as a process of restoring refugee rights and historical justice, in reality the ideology and goals of this structure are aimed at undermining the foundations of statehood within Armenia. It advances not only legal and political demands, but also a cultural, demographic and geopolitical agenda that could radically change Armenia’s demography, administrative structures and the foundations of its identity. All this is formulated in the language of “human rights” in order to be more easily accepted on international platforms.

Official goals and documentary basis

The main document of the structure is the "Return Concept", which clearly formulates the goals and mechanisms. It includes the following provisions:

● Legally enshrining return – The peace treaty to be signed with Armenia should include an obligation for the “return of Western Azerbaijanis.” This already places Armenia under legal obligations.

● International mandate – it is planned that the return will be carried out with the participation of international forces (referring to Turkey), which will be stationed on the territory of Armenia and will have security powers. This is a de facto limitation of Armenia's sovereignty.

● Powers of returnees – it is envisaged that returnees will have their own security forces and will be able to participate in Armenia’s judicial system. This creates the risk of parallel power.

● Property and land claims – return of land, houses, community areas, and in some cases compensation will be required. This will be a serious financial and social burden for Armenia.

● Linguistic and cultural demands – legalization of the Azerbaijani language in state structures, schools, and restoration of place names. This means a systemic weakening of Armenian identity.

Latest announcements

Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev has repeatedly stated that the “Western Azerbaijan” agenda will always remain at the forefront of Azerbaijani state policy. His words, “they will return not in tanks, but in cars,” make it clear that this ideology is viewed as a practical program and not just rhetoric. This message is intended to convince the international community that the “return” will be peaceful, but in reality it will be accompanied by pressure and coercion.

Baku is also publicly demanding that Armenia make a clear position on the terms and conditions of return. This indicates that the “Western Azerbaijan” agenda will be used as leverage to put pressure on Yerevan both at the negotiating table and in international forums.

Hidden goals

A deeper analysis shows that the real goals of this agenda go much further than the return of refugees:

1. International mandate inside Armenia – Azerbaijan’s goal is to establish its influence inside Armenia through international forces (referring to Turkey). This could lead to a weakening of the powers of Armenia’s state institutions.

2. Demographic architecture – with the centralized settlement of “returnees,” Azerbaijani autonomous zones may be created, which over time will become hotbeds of pressure.

3. Legal and cultural changes – the legalization of the Azerbaijani language in state structures, the change of place names, and the re-stratification of cultural heritage aim to gradually absorb Armenia.

4. Transport and geopolitical goals – By exerting pressure on the Syunik Corridor, Baku is trying to control Armenia's strategic communications and weaken its ties with Iran and other countries.

Risks for Armenia

The implementation of this program will lead to multi-layered dangers:

● Legal risks – undermining Armenia's sovereignty and state governance system.

● Socio-economic risks – large-scale property claims, financial burden, internal social tension.

● Security risks – creation of parallel government, possible clashes in places.

● Cultural risks – gradual weakening of Armenian identity, distortion of historical heritage.

● Diplomatic risks – international legitimization of Azerbaijan's narrative and isolation of Armenia.

If the program is implemented

If Azerbaijan succeeds in this project, the consequences for Armenia will be devastating.

● Limitation of sovereignty – autonomous structures with an international mandate within Armenia.

● Increased emigration – large-scale emigration of Armenians from certain regions.

● Dependence on Baku – control of transport routes and regional dependence.

● Cultural transformation – “Azerbaijanization” of the Armenian cultural environment.

● Legal crises – property lawsuits that will weaken Armenia's state institutions.

Conclusion

The “Western Azerbaijan” agenda is not a tool for protecting refugee rights, but a mechanism for the process of “absorption” within Armenia. It combines legal, political, economic, security, and cultural pressures with the aim of weakening Armenia’s statehood and making it ultimately dependent on Baku. Armenia’s primary challenge is to prevent this agenda on international platforms and strengthen the foundations of its own statehood.

International scholar, expert on Azerbaijani affairs: Garnik Davtyan