The resettlement of Azerbaijanis in occupied Artsakh and its consequences for Armenia

After the September 2023 military aggression, when Azerbaijan established control over the entire territory of Artsakh, the “resettlement process of Azerbaijanis” began. This policy has both an internal goal - the return of so-called displaced citizens - and an external goal - strengthening control. However, the process has a number of challenges and risks, both within Azerbaijan and for Armenia.

The process of resettlement and the real picture

Azerbaijan's state approach: Azerbaijan presents resettlement as a just step that restores the historical rights of Azerbaijanis displaced in the 1990s. Resettlement is being implemented under a state program, including housing, infrastructure, roads, and public institutions.

Population response: Despite official propaganda, many resettlers are dissatisfied with the lack of security, mining, and socio-economic difficulties. There are often no stable jobs, full-fledged schools, or medical services in the area. In some cases, there is information that resettlement is carried out under some pressure or coercion. The process of resettlement is described as a voluntary process, but in reality, a number of soft pressure mechanisms are used: social dependence, state pressure, exploitation of patriotic pathos, and exclusion of alternatives. All of these are characteristics of forced resettlement, which seriously undermine the spontaneous and democratic nature of the process.

Cases of escape: Although official sources remain silent on this issue, according to international observers and journalists, some resettled people, particularly in the Shushi and Hadrut regions, have left these areas due to unfavorable conditions.

Challenges for Armenia

Security threats: Repopulated areas are being used as bases to exert pressure on Armenia. The growing population and military infrastructure in Nagorno-Karabakh pose a threat to the border settlements of Syunik, Gegharkunik, and Tavush.

Diplomatic and informational challenges: Azerbaijani propaganda presents only the return of Azerbaijani displaced persons, ignoring and denying the forced displacement of more than 100,000 Armenians. This creates a serious informational imbalance.

Threats to cultural heritage: Azerbaijan is taking steps to erase Armenian historical and cultural heritage, renaming settlements, destroying churches and monuments. This deepens the distortion of historical justice in the region.

Future risks and scenarios

Increased security in border regions.

Artificial change in demographic composition to withstand international pressure.

Complete militarization of the territory in order to exert leverage over Armenia.

Social discontent in Azerbaijan due to poor conditions of return.

Security risk - the territory of Nagorno-Karabakh is turning into a zone rich in military infrastructure, a direct threat to Armenia's border settlements.

Demographic manipulation - Azerbaijan is trying to artificially change the demographic picture of the territory for further justification.

Destruction of historical and cultural heritage - Armenian churches, cemeteries, and monuments are under threat.

Potential for social unrest in Azerbaijan - If resettled residents are dissatisfied with the conditions, that dissatisfaction could spiral out of control.

Although official Baku avoids talking about possible resettlement failures, thanks to independent sources and some journalistic investigations, a number of facts have been published that testify to some cases of escape from the Shushi and Hadrut regions, which we will discuss in more detail in the next analysis. Azerbaijan’s resettlement program is not just a demographic issue: it is a tool for regional control, rewriting history, and coercion. For Armenia, this is a serious challenge that requires a comprehensive strategy, including diplomatic activity, strengthening security, and a policy for the protection of historical and cultural heritage.

International scholar, expert on Azerbaijan: Garnik Davtyan