"Zhoghovurd": The NSS has no data, the Central Bank explains: what was the "211 million dollars transferred from Azerbaijan to Armenia"?

The Zhoghovurd daily writes: “In 2021, former MP Armen Yeghiazaryan, referring to World Bank data, made a sensational statement, claiming that about 211 million US dollars were transferred from Azerbaijan to Armenia in 2018. For years, this figure has been circulating in the public sphere, raising numerous questions, but no state structure has provided a clear explanation so far.

The Zhoghovurd daily, taking into account the public importance of the topic, first turned to Andranik Simonyan, Director of the National Security Service of the Republic of Armenia, to find out whether the NSS had studied this information and whether there was data on such a volume of financial flows from Azerbaijan to Armenia.

The response received from the NSS was quite remarkable. The department stated that:

“During the exercise of the powers vested in it by the legislation, it did not receive data on the transfer of 211 million US dollars from the Republic of Azerbaijan to the Republic of Armenia.”

At the same time, the NSS suggested applying to the Central Bank of Armenia to obtain the necessary information.

After that, the Zhoghovurd daily sent a similar request to the Central Bank, asking it to clarify whether there is data on the $211 million transferred from Azerbaijan to Armenia in 2018, and to what extent these figures correspond to reality, what their purpose is, by whom they were made, etc. Has the Central Bank of Armenia conducted any analysis related to the assessment of possible security, financial or economic risks of these data, and if not, for what reason?

The CB’s response, in essence, completely changes the perception of the story that has been discussed for years.

The Central Bank first noted that the data published by the World Bank “are only expert assessments based on data on migrants.”

According to the CB, the calculations are based not on actual remittances, but on migration statistics.

“In particular, according to the World Bank, there are 87 thousand migrants from Azerbaijan in Armenia, and 146 thousand migrants from Armenia in Azerbaijan. It should be noted that the latter are migrants, not individuals receiving and/or making transfers,” the Central Bank reported.

Moreover, the Central Bank explains that the World Bank methodology calculates the supposed income and expenses of migrants, after which a general assessment is made of the amount of funds that could have been transferred to their countries of origin.

“Based on the number of migrants and estimates of income and expenses, the World Bank experts conclude that all migrants make transfers to their home countries,” the Central Bank’s response states.

However, the most important observation is perhaps the following:

“These transfers are not actually made money transfers, but are calculated based on the number of people who moved from Armenia to Azerbaijan and from Azerbaijan to Armenia.”

In other words, we are not talking about real transactions recorded through the banking system or other financial channels, but exclusively about a statistical model used by an international organization.

Moreover, the Central Bank has clearly stated:

“According to the official statistics of the Republic of Armenia, no money transfers are made between the subjects of the Republic of Armenia and Azerbaijan.”

In fact, it becomes clear from the responses of the two state structures that the figure of 211 million dollars, which has been the subject of discussions for years, is not official data on real transfers. The National Security Service does not have such information, and the Central Bank states that we are talking about a model estimate of the World Bank, which was calculated based on migration data and does not reflect actually made money transfers.Moreover, the Central Bank also reported that in the same sources for 2022, the same data is written as 0. And after 2018, the data was processed, and in 2022, as already mentioned, such data is not available. As for the data after 2022, such publications have not been made after that year.

On this occasion, the “Zhoghovurd” daily contacted Armen Yeghiazaryan, a former deputy of the RA National Assembly, a candidate for deputy on the “Wings of Unity” party list.

The latter still insists that his statement made from the podium of the National Assembly was based on official data, which, according to him, were published in the World Bank reports.

“This information, which I announced from the NA rostrum, was official and was posted on the World Bank website,” Yeghiazaryan noted, adding that before making a public statement, he had written to various structures, including the director of the World Bank’s Armenian office.

According to him, in the response received, the bank did not deny the existence of such a report, but tried to explain that it was about forecasted data. Yeghiazaryan, however, raised the question of why in previous years the differences between such forecasts and actual indicators were relatively small, while in this case a dozens-fold increase was recorded.

“What has changed in the base values, that from an indicator of about $4 million we have reached $211 million,” said the former MP, emphasizing that the indicator of $211 million for 2018 was officially published in the reports.

According to Yeghiazaryan, it was about open information, which concerned money transfers between countries of the world. He also noted that after the uproar over the topic in Armenia, the World Bank removed the data and no longer published similar reports.

“I keep all those files with me,” he said, adding that he cannot say for sure whether such reports exist today or are simply not available to the public.

The former MP said that he personally transferred the entire information package he had collected to Armen Abazyan, the director of the National Security Service of the Republic of Armenia. However, according to him, he received a response from the NSS that the structure did not have such information according to its data.

“I said, ‘You don’t have it, I’ll provide it to you,’” Yeghiazaryan noted.

In his assessment, the NSS did not show sufficient interest in the topic, and no further in-depth study was conducted. Yeghiazaryan also applied to the Central Bank, from which, according to him, they informed him a few days later that no such money transfers between banks had been recorded.

However, he did not rule out that the money could have been transferred through other mechanisms, such as through moneylenders or intermediary banks, as a result of which their movement could have been reflected in the reports in a different way.

According to Yeghiazaryan, no in-depth study of the issue was ever conducted, and it remained unanswered. He also noted that after 2021, no longer being an MP, he did not have the necessary leverage to follow the process and find out what money was involved and for what purposes.