Trump's path is not about peace, but about the geopolitical competition unfolding in southern Armenia: Political analyst

"Trump's special envoy Steve Witkoff and son-in-law Kushner have arrived in Moscow, where they will negotiate with the Russian side, most likely receiving a reception from Putin. After Moscow, according to preliminary information, they will visit Kiev to negotiate with Zelensky. Of course, it is not excluded that the visit to Kiev will depend on Moscow's blood, since it is possible that there will be such an outcome in Moscow that leaving for Kiev at this time would be pointless. In all cases, it has been announced that they will visit Moscow and then Kiev," writes political analyst Hakob Badalyan.

In detail:

"Ahead of the visit of Witkoff and Kushner, Peskov announced that they see no prerequisites for ending the Ukrainian war. It is only interesting that the Russian side struck the building of the National Security Service in Kiev the day before. It is noteworthy that hours before that, Putin announced Russian-Ukrainian contacts on the issue of special services. Against the background of this statement, the attack on the building of the National Security Service in Kiev arouses some interest.

In parallel, the Ukrainian side announced two days ago that it would activate drones in the direction of Russia to such an extent that Russia would not be able to ensure the normal operation of civil aviation. Of course, this is probably a diplomatic positional struggle before the visit of Witkoff and Kushner, the result of which will be possible to assess only after the visit of the American delegates. There is no doubt that they are not leaving for Moscow for no reason.

On the other hand, their agenda is unlikely to be predominantly Ukrainian. Therefore, it would probably not be accurate to measure the result only by any development in the Ukrainian issue.

By the way, before the visit of Witkoff and Kushner to Moscow, it is perhaps worth paying attention to several interesting circumstances, accompanying circumstances.

A few days before his visit to Moscow, Witkoff actually published an article about Trump’s route, which Trump also shared on his social media page. Naturally, Witkoff lavished peace-loving words on the project, describing it as an important geopolitical project and the result of Trump’s diplomatic “genius,” while also noting that it could serve as an example for the Middle East. While the American side lavishes such words on Trump’s route, Russia is “pouring out” concerns.

“The so-called “Trump route” through Armenia allows Americans to deploy their troops or private military companies, intelligence infrastructure directly on the territory of Armenia and in the immediate vicinity of the Iranian border,” said Alexei Shevtsov, deputy secretary of the Russian Security Council. About two weeks ago, the news also spread the statement of the advisor to the commander of the Iranian armed forces that Armenia and Iran do not have a common approach to Trump's path, and that for Iran, just as the American presence in the Strait of Hormuz is unacceptable, so is the Caucasus. Of course, it was doubted whether such a statement really existed, but at least Iran did not officially deny its existence in any way.

There is no doubt that Trump's path is not about peace, but about the geopolitical competition that is taking place in the south of Armenia. A competition that can turn peace into a point of conflict if events develop in such a way that it is not possible to bring the approaches and interests of the geopolitical power centers closer together in that zone. And the fact that this risk exists is evidenced by perhaps the most significant assessment made by Russia months ago. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Overchuk, who after the 2020 war was engaged in the work of the co-chair of the Armenian-Russian-Azerbaijani trilateral working group on communications, stated in an interview with the TASS agency on April 2, 2026, the day after Nikol Pashinyan’s visit to Moscow, that Trump’s path violates the security status quo established in that region. Overchuk stated that the status quo in that region was established as early as the Russian-Persian Treaty of Gulistan, about 200 years ago, and Trump’s path violates that treaty.

Overchuk concluded that this means a security threat. It should be emphasized that his interview was published immediately after Nikol Pashinyan’s visit to Moscow. Witkoff is publishing his article about Trump’s path before his upcoming visit to Moscow.

The Trump path does not formally refer to the Ukrainian issue, but the Ukrainian issue itself is an occasion for a broader Russian-American issue, therefore it is almost inevitable that the issue of Iran, the issue of the Middle East in general, will not appear on the table. And that means that the Trump path will also be there. Moreover, in this context, it is absolutely not necessary to forget that before August 8, 2025, when the famous trilateral statement on the Trump path was signed in Washington, the same Witkoff was again in Moscow, on August 6. And two days before the Armenian-American-Azerbaijani trilateral act on the Trump path, he had agreed on the Trump-Putin meeting in Alaska after 3.5 hours of negotiations with Russian President Putin in Moscow, which took place on August 15.

Also, in this context, it is quite remarkable that after the Pashinyan-Putin meeting in Bishkek, Russian President Putin announced that he had invited Nikol Pashinyan to discuss all issues in more detail and calmly in Moscow in the coming days. Most likely, here too, Moscow has observed the discussion with Witkoff and Kouchner, in the context of the outcome of which Nikol Pashinyan's visit to Moscow and detailed discussions with Putin will probably take place.